The dilemma of a Coach

Once there was a very disciplined golf coach. His intention is to get the optimal outcome from his students, Steve and John. One day he was observing their performance. John performed really well and Steve performed poorly. He praised John and castigated Steve. On a subsequent day, John's performance degrades whereas Steve's performance improves. He observed that praise deteriorates performance whereas criticism improves performance. His insight is contrary to the motivational theory.

Is it really the case that harsh criticism improves the performance of an individual?

The golf coach is right as well as wrong. His observation is correct but the insight he attributes to the observation is incorrect. He is an amazing golf coach but his statistical skills are rusty. He confuses the correlation with causation. Let's dive deeper into these terms to find out the gaps in the thinking of a golf coach.

The correlation coefficient between the two measures which varies between -1 and 1 is a measure of the relative weight of factors they share. Consider the statement, "Sleep improves the health of an individual." Sleep is correlated with the health of an individual. It is one of the many factors that improve the well-being of an individual. Nutrition, Exercise, Meditation, etc are the other factors that influence the health of an individual. Causation means X causes Y. X is the cause and Y will be its effect. Job promotion increases the salary of an individual. Job promotion is the cause and the hike in salary is its effect.

Let's see some more examples to understand the idea of correlation. Children whose parents consume alcohol got poor grades in school. These statements are very catchy and give a skewed view of reality. The human brain endorses these statements without any thought.

Is it really true?

Sometimes it's good to invert the problem to gain a better understanding of it. It might be possible that children who got poor grades cause depression among their parents. Hence, they started consuming alcohol. The former statement assumes that alcohol consumption by parents causes poor grades whereas the latter statement assumes that poor grades of children force the parents to consume alcohol. The statements seem to be correct in the way they are framed. Both are wrong because each statement assumes that one causes the other. Alcohol consumption and poor grades are correlated with each other but none of them causes the another.

A few years ago, one study revealed that the Success rate of mothers who gave birth to their babies at home was greater than the ones who gave in the hospital. You are more likely to hear these kinds of statements in the news.

Does it mean that the women who assist pregnant ladies have more expertise than professional gynecologists?

In the past, only complicated cases would be taken to hospitals. Such complications arise due to the unprofessional procedures undertaken by the women who assist pregnant ladies. The cases were in terrible situations and it became impossible for the doctors to recover from the damage. Therefore, the success rate of hospitals is lesser than homes. These statements give an incorrect view of reality and don't be swayed by them. Dig deeper to find the root cause to get an unbiased view of reality.

The correlation coefficient is of three types.

1. No Correlation.

2. Perfect Correlation.

3. Weak Correlation.

No Correlation: The correlation coefficient between two measuring entities is zero. In simple words, there doesn't exist any link between the two events. For example, plotting a graph between the suicide rate and the person having a pet in his home won't show any pattern.

Perfect Correlation: The correlation coefficient between two measuring entities is one. According to Wikipedia, temperature is a physical quality that expresses quantitatively the perceptions of hotness and coldness. The hotness and coldness of a body depend upon the velocity of the molecules. Fahrenheit and Celcius are the units for measuring temperature. A one-unit increase in Celcius will produce the same one-unit increase in Fahrenheit. Plotting a graph between Fahrenheit and Celcius produces a straight line. Another name for perfect correlation is causation.

Weak Correlation: The correlation coefficient between two measuring entities lie between 0 and 1. The height and weight of a human body are weakly correlated to each other. It implies that the taller guy has more weight than the short-heightened guy.

Simultaneous occurrences of an event imply that one is causing the other. When two events are weakly correlated to each other then the extreme events will always be followed by the moderate ones. This phenomenon is known as a Regression to the mean. It was discovered by a statistician Francis Galton who found a pattern between the heights of parents and their kids. He observed that the heights of the kids of taller parents are shorter than theirs and vice-versa. The taller parents have above-average heights and their kid's height is more likely to be close to an average value. Later, he found that the regression to the mean and correlation are the two names explaining the same phenomenon.

Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. Charlie Munger

How can we use this knowledge to understand the above story?

Success is a combination of talent and luck. More success is a combination of a little more talent and a lot of luck. Luck plays an important role in Golf. John performed above average on one day. It means John is a talented player and a little lucky on that day. Talent is an intrinsic quality that remains static and improves incrementally with hard work. Luck is purely random that fluctuates every day. On a subsequent day, John's performance degrades. Of course, he was a talented player but the luck will move toward an average as extreme events will soften over time. The degradation in performance can't be attributed to praise because the difference arises due to luck which is a random factor.

Steve performed below average on one day. It means that Steve is a bad player plus experienced a stroke of tough luck on that day. On a subsequent day, his performance improves because his luck moves towards an average due to regression to the mean. The increase in performance will be attributed to regression to the mean, not to the harsh criticism.

The lesson is irrespective of what the coach says, their performance will gravitate towards an average. Praise and Criticism have no effect on the performance of a player. The goal of the coach is to find the weaker areas of a player and instruct him accordingly to perform optimally.

Let's see some more real-life examples to understand the concept of regression to the mean.

Head lice were a normal part of life for the inhabitants of Hebrides. The Hebrides is on the west coast of the Scottish mainland. People immediately fell sick when head lice no longer reside on their heads. The simultaneous occurrence of two events makes them believe that head lice are good for their health. They are confusing the correlation as causation. The root cause is lice leave their host because they experience the hotness in their feet due to the rise of the body temperature of a host.

One study reveals that sending more firefighters to a blaze causes more damage to a building. The fire control department immediately freezes the recruitment of firefighters. The root cause is that the minor blaze causes less damage to a building. Therefore, a lesser number of firefighters can handle the situation whereas in the case of a major blaze the damage is so colossal that an even more number of firefighters can't recover the damage.

A newspaper headline describes that depressed children are cured by energy drinks. Parents started giving energy drinks to their depressed kids. Their children have shown an improvement in their behavior. Hence, parents started believing that energy drinks cure depression. Depressed children are at the extremes. They have deviated from their normal behavior. They started showing improvements in their behavior with the passage of time. Irrespective of what they drink, their extreme behavior will be followed by moderate ones.

The human brain has a tendency to fabricate the cause-and-effect relation where no link is present. Even scientists will become victims of this kind of behavior. The antidote is to make use of control groups. Divide the people into two groups. Give energy drinks to one group whereas no treatment would be given to the other group. Track the behavior of both groups. If giving an energy drink shows above-average results then only believe it otherwise ignore such claims.

Sports Illustrated curse is a term that demonstrates that an athlete whose photo appears in the magazine is likely to perform poorly in the subsequent season. The exceptional performance of an athlete happens due to talent and luck. It is highly probable that he will experience average luck in the next season. Therefore, his performance looks bad compared to the previous season. His luck is regressing towards the mean as extreme events are always followed by moderate ones.

Couples generally make a mistake by assuming the initial obsession and optimism to be a real representative of a relationship. It is generally known as the honeymoon period. When you date somebody, you are more likely to see the skewed version of them. They maintain their personal hygiene and look more immaculate than their usual selves. The couples are under the illusion of the Halo effect. It is a cognitive bias that illustrates when one trait is used to make the overall judgment of a person or a thing. Appearances are deceptive. Hence, people ended up marrying the wrong person.

When you're in love you never really know whether your elation comes from the qualities of the one you love, or if it attributes them to her; whether the light which surrounds her like a halo comes from you, from her, or from the meeting of your sparks. Natalie Clifford Barney

A handsome-looking guy might be a terrible person in his personal life. The best way to counter this fallacy is to wait and watch. Withhold your emotions and let the other person comes back to normal behavior. You are more likely to see their virtues and vices by patiently watching them. As you gather more and more information, you are more likely to see the whole picture. It will help you to take the decision more objectively than emotionally.

Regression to the mean is a very important tool that puts reality into proper perspective. Always appreciate the role of luck in success. Before starting any new venture, find the average result and try to meet those averages. Once average results are achieved then work hard for incremental improvements. Any unexpected event is not going to continue indefinitely. Therefore, don't give up after facing extreme failure. Things will revert back to normal with the passage of time.

Always take a large sample space to get a better picture of reality. A human brain is an associative machine that tries to attach causal explanations to every outcome. Never judge an event on the basis of its outcome because luck has played an important role in it. Be more process-oriented rather than result oriented. Optimal decisions are the outcome of good processes which helps you to become a successful person in the long run.

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